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On FTX, one can speculate on the outcome of the US presidential election, but many Trump supporters have a problem with the outcome of the election, and under pressure, their contracts will run until February.
The forecast markets on FTX offer customers of the exchange wide opportunities to speculate on the outcome of the election. In principle, the exchange offers tokens for each of the two candidates, each of which is based on a separate contract and you can bet on whether he will win or lose.
That opens up a lot of options for friends of speculation, because of course you could also bet on the success or failure of individual candidates in the primaries. The contracts are deemed to be fulfilled when a certain event occurs. If the speculators are correct with their forecasts, then the contract pays the promised profit. But if you are wrong, you will lose your money.
Since elections are considered to have been decided on a key date, these are futures contracts that are deemed to have been fulfilled when the result is received. But there is one big problem with this choice. The current president and his supporters do not accept the result of the election.
When is the President considered elected?
Many Americans are likely to ask themselves this question, presumably a great number of Trump supporters among them. Here the stock exchange tripped itself, because under pressure from customers who bet on an election victory for Trump, the contracts for an election victory for Trump were extended. The basis for this was probably too vague the wording of the contracts, because they should, among other things, be regarded as fulfilled even if a candidate was declared the winner of the election by trustworthy sources.
Needless to say, many Trump supporters consider most of the available sources such as CNN or AP to be untrustworthy. From their point of view, Biden will not emerge victorious.
Now the contracts are subjected to a final rule change, which corresponds to the situation in the USA and seems at least as bizarre. The contracts that bet on Biden’s victory or Trump’s defeat will expire and will be paid out at $ 1 per contract because Trump lost and Biden won.
At the same time, the contracts that were issued for a victory by Trump or a defeat by Biden will continue to run until February 1, 2021 and will be combined in a new contract. If Trump is still in office by the deadline, the speculators will be paid $ 1 per contract. However, if Biden is in office or if the election should be declared void, then they will get nothing. If the speculators do not agree to the rule change, then their old contracts are no longer worth anything from 11/11/2020 and they lose their stake.
Trolls and Alternative Facts
Thus, for Trump fans and speculators who have placed themselves in an unfavorable situation with their bets on the prediction markets, the principle of hope remains. The new contract, which got the ticker TRUMPFEB, is worth about $ 0.10 at the hour.
FTX literally spoke of trolls on social mediathat one had given in and that this would remain a one-time exception. Apparently one does not want to scare the customers away, although the choice is considered decided. The exchange received various feedback via Twitter. Almost everything was there, from gratitude to incomprehension. And so you can bet on a win, although the defeat is already certain. This does not reduce the forecast markets entirely to absurdity, but it puts them in a bad light. After all, the contracts are based on the fact that one can trust that the rules will be strictly adhered to, even if the losers suffer from a loss of reality.