In just over three weeks, the decentralized prediction market, Polymarket, has turned from zero to nearly $ 3 million.
As of November 2, more than $ 2.8 million was bet on the polymarket “Will Trump win the 2020 US president election?”.
Users can place bets using crypto assets (cryptocurrencies) on topical topics such as politics, pop culture, business and health. Polymarket does not hold or store user funds. USD coins (USDC), which are dollar-linked stable coins, are used for betting.
Polymarket trading volume trends
Prediction markets, where users bet on the outcome of a particular event, have become a DeFi (decentralized finance) application that makes financial transactions on the blockchain without going through an intermediary. Elections and political debates in particular have attracted many traders to the prediction market.
Augur, a decentralized prediction market, started five years ago, but didn’t get off to a good start until the 2018 midterm elections bet.
“For me, the presidential election is a super bowl of prediction markets. Trading volumes are rising significantly in various prediction markets,” said David Liebowitz of the decentralized encyclopedia service Everipedia. Speaks.
The presidential election also seems to be attracting new users to the decentralized prediction market.
“Some users aren’t familiar with crypto assets, and they use polymarkets even though they don’t understand crypto assets,” said Shayne, founder of polymarkets. Coplan) states.
About a week ago, Polymarket announced that it had secured $ 4 million in its latest funding round, which was attended by prominent investors in the industry. Meanwhile, Auger launched a new, improved version of version 2 in July.
After the presidential election?
For the presidential election on November 3, users are looking at betting and prediction markets. YieldWars, an anonymous prediction market using crypto assets, began betting on elections on the night of the 2nd and has already raised more than $ 50,000. Users can place bets using the market’s native token WAR or Ethereum (ETH).
Yield Wars co-founder Owl said the surge in stakes wasn’t shocking given the size and importance of the election.
“The crypto asset-based prediction market should be booming on the blockchain now, but it hasn’t been on track so far. The presidential election has brought the prediction market to life, but what if the election is over?”
Prediction market is in the early stages
Yield Wars has partnered with Wikipedia to use Associated Press election data for the prediction market. Election data obtained by Everypedia through its Associated Press partnership will be tied to the blockchain.
“There will be no more reliable source of information than the Associated Press. We used Chainlink’s infrastructure to connect the data,” Oulu said.
Blockchain has long been considered the best platform for the prediction market, according to Reebowitz. But centralized prediction markets like PredictIt are still dominant.
There are 214 “markets” or forecast scenarios in Predict. On the other hand, there are only 19 emerging polymarkets. As of the 2nd, Predictit’s “2020 Presidential Election Winner?” Had 116.7 million transactions.
According to Coplan, demand in the blockchain-based prediction market has always existed. “It was clear that there was a lot of demand. It can be said that demand has actually materialized in the last couple of weeks, but it is still in the very early stages.”